矛盾的緩解對加劇

曾澍基

 
從歷史及辯證角度看，有些矛盾應越早顯露越好。對陣各方都須走幾歩棋，成就和代價若非公認，亦心裡有數，然後再計算。小爆炸可能防止大爆炸，流少血避免流多血。上世紀兩次世界大戰就是悲劇反例子。

很個人式，男女相戀產生磨擦，閙一場，分手或復合，起碼出現冷靜期，他殺、自殺或互殺機會較低。

看宏觀點，世界、區域、大陸、中港、特區，這道理未必放諸四海皆準，但應具參考價值吧？

另些矛盾屬"不可調和"，例如馬克思所說資產對工人階級的矛盾。至於以巴衝突，因外力及內因拖延甚久。

從對策/博弈理論(game theory)分析，請看我另一貼子：

https://www.facebook.com/#!/shuki.tsang/posts/109867039175071?notif_t=like

英文內容：

「Wars, not to say world wars, are complicated. Zero-sum games? "Prisoner’s dilemma"? From statics to dynamics? Thomas Schelling, an eventual Nobel Prize winner (2005) provided some expert views in this 2002 piece which quoted him.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_earthling/2002/05/both_sides_now.single.html

…..

Explanations 2 ("Diverging interests between people and their leaders") and 3 ("Ironic twist") are noteworthy. No. 4 is on the prisoner’s dilemma and No. 5 on "threat bargaining". I know some of you are fed up. For the very basic concepts, absolutely nothing beyond them, my lecture notes on game theory serve some elementary introductions (http://www.1970splus50.com/Notes.htm)

I have just added a new piece which explains the various concepts in more accessible terms: http://www.1970splus50.com/Notes/IIAe-Oligopoly.pdf) 」