2012年12月18日 星期二

A New War Game

Tsang Shu-ki (www.sktsang.com)


Because of the pronounced downturn in the world economy and the expected fight for resources (which I have predicted for quite some time), we are entering a dangerous phase in history.

The dire situation is evidenced by sophisticated weapons being rapidly developed as a substitute/complement for nuclear bombs, i.e. actual firepower under the ultimate deterrent, which when used in the modern era would end in global disaster. A new war game, armament race and military maneuvering are in the making.

A news report entitled “US seeks ‘world supremacy’ through advanced weapons - Security Chief” quoted that Nikolay Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, has commented that “a new generation of weapon systems – including anti-ballistic missiles – is changing the nuclear calculus.

The report continued:

Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin spoke on the threat of mobile, naval-based elements of the US missile defense system “suddenly appearing” on Russia’s coastline. Such an event would trigger “the harshest reaction from Russia," he warned.

Rogozin said that Russia is now taking definite steps to counter US warships “equipped with the Aegis integrated naval weapons system.”

Moscow has frequently warned of “another arms race” unless a bilateral agreement is reached on NATO’s plans for missile defense near the Russian border.

However, in a clear reference to US plans for a naval-based missile defense shield in Eastern Europe, Patrushev mentioned that a new generation of weapons is being developed, and that “the United States has proven successful in this field of research.”


As to‘breakthrough’ military weapons, another post has it like this.

From lasers to attack drones, military warfare has entered a whole other realm of technological sophistication. Weapons are getting stealthier, have the potential to destroy targets located hundreds of miles away with incredible precision and with less risk to soldiers.

It’s a different kind of arms race that is as much about integrated ’smart technologies’ like GPS and real time streaming video as missiles and fighter jets. Here are some game-changing weapons that are being heralded as the future of defense.


A reference on anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system is as follows. Naval-based one, which Patrushev and Rogozin referred to, appears to be among the most dangerous because of its mobility, and may provoke another round of armament race.


2012年12月11日 星期二

The future
On China up to 2030 from U.S. perspective: a comment about the report “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds”.
Collapse, thereby unrest and shock? Or democracy, leading to enhanced nationalism? Now, this is a noteworthy “insight” (or admittance) from the top intelligence unit in the world, going far beyond popular binary and boring thinking. BTW, it is not easy to find a democratic and powerful country which is following the hegemonic power like what Japan has been doing to the U.S. after WWII. Why has Europe formed EU and euro zone?
/China is slated to pass the threshold of US$15,000 per capita purchasing power parity (PPP) in the next five years or so—a level that is often a trigger for democratization. Chinese “soft” power could be dramatically boosted, setting off a wave of democratic movements. Alternatively, many experts believe a democratic China could also become more nationalistic. An economically collapsed China would trigger political unrest and shock the global economy. / “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds”, National Intelligence Council, U.S. page xi of full report.

/5 Will the US, as the leading actor on the world stage, be able to reinvent the international system, carving out potential new roles in an expanded world order? The US most likely will remain primus inter pares among the other great powers in 2030 because of the multifaceted nature of its power and legacies of its leadership, but the “unipolar moment” is over. LIMITED POTENTIAL (emphasis added by me) for China to replace US as international leader by 2030. /  See "le menu" of the report and my post on Facebook.




2012年12月10日 星期一


曾澍基 (www.sktsang.com)

(1)   角色模範 (10/12/2002)

誰沒「英雄/偶像」?樓下帖美斯 (Messi) 破紀錄入球,是今早自然呼喚結果,後再大睡。
每人成長過程不同,少年體智還待發展,關視可觸及的角色模範(role model) 十分自然。問題須避免戀他或反向自戀。超脫者祝願。
我有點懷念以往透明度尚高的 Prost, Senna, Cruyff 等。

(2)   中國的貧富不均惡化 (10/12/2002)

/The Gini coefficient, an index measuring income inequality, was 0.61 in 2010, based on a survey of 8,438 households by the Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance, a body set up by the Finance Research Institute of the People’s Bank of China and Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. The survey also estimated the urban jobless rate in July 2012 was 8.05 percent, almost double the official figure./

China Survey Shows Wealth Gap Soaring as Xi Pledges Help

The presentation on Gini coefficient: http://chfs.swufe.edu.cn/upload/shourubupingdeng.pdf

The file with unemployment findings:

(3)   中國地方債務與金融糾結可能引致危機的文章 (7/12/2012)

想寫篇中國地方債務與金融糾結可能引致危機的文章 - 近兩年熱門課題。有些論者甚至認為中國已經「破產」,若干年內「崩潰」。



1)至(5 在浸大講授「中國之財政與金融」已提供分析。(6) - (8)須再硏究。

昨天天文台曾預告寒冷,索性蝸留家裡起歩撰文。無奈中午後網絡大塞車,龜行狀態,最後晚間連電腦都 hang 埋。


(4)   Just what is a recession (5/12/2012)

Even Nobel laureate (in economics) Lucas, of rational expectations and monetarism mark II fame, reportedly realizes that there are different kinds of recessions: real shocks versus bursting of financial bubbles.

Economist, with tongue in cheek, makes it a multiple "classification". BTW, we are still in a financial "recession". http://econ.st/VhHi1n



2012年12月2日 星期日

中國的 copycat cities
曾澍基 (www.sktsang.com)

近年的 copycat cities,日本到處都是(九州及北海道尤其多)。壞處乃新建設未顧及文化保留(甚或損傷),好處(除投資效應)不外把消費內化:錢留於國內滚動。


2012年12月1日 星期六

Empire and justice

Running an imperial empire is the opposite of doing charity, with the primary aim to capture resources including slaves who would be used to extend the empire. Most colonial powers were brutal. The British shared brutality and but added cunning manipulation. The worst examples were the Spaniards in Latin America and the Portuguese and Dutch in Africa. A “more human face” (if that term is appropriate at all) was put on only after the huge global waves of independence and de-colonisation after WWII.

Now, the various courts of international justice seem to be more open. Former colonized and tortured people may sue imperialists for infringement or war crime, and Palestine can do the same against Israel for illegal occupation. It is a welcome opportunity.


The test however would be severe. A test of conscience versus power! Don't expect concrete results. But as RT's comment (second link above) so aptly summarized, it at least has changed the international discourse. People's increased awareness outside their narrow, daily and myopic confines could accumulate to become a torrent, then a river, and later a big lake or sea. Who knows?