The future
On
China up to 2030 from U.S. perspective: a comment about the report “Global
Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds”.
Collapse,
thereby unrest and shock? Or democracy, leading to enhanced nationalism? Now,
this is a noteworthy “insight” (or admittance) from the top intelligence unit
in the world, going far beyond popular binary and boring thinking. BTW, it is
not easy to find a democratic and powerful country which is following the
hegemonic power like what Japan has been doing to the U.S. after WWII. Why has
Europe formed EU and euro zone?
/China
is slated to pass the threshold of US$15,000 per capita purchasing power parity
(PPP) in the next five years or so—a level that is often a trigger for
democratization. Chinese “soft” power could be dramatically boosted, setting
off a wave of democratic movements. Alternatively, many experts believe a
democratic China could also become more nationalistic. An economically
collapsed China would trigger political unrest and shock the global economy. /
“Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds”, National Intelligence Council, U.S.
page xi of full report.
/5 Will the US, as the leading actor on the world stage, be able to reinvent the international system, carving out potential new roles in an expanded world order? The US most likely will remain primus inter pares among the other great powers in 2030 because of the multifaceted nature of its power and legacies of its leadership, but the “unipolar moment” is over. LIMITED POTENTIAL (emphasis added by me) for China to replace US as international leader by 2030. / See "le menu" of the report and my post on Facebook.
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